Are Synthetic Indices Rigged? (Hidden Truth)

Every trader who’s blown an account on synthetic indices has asked the question, is it rigged? Moreover, when you lose five trades in a row on Volatility 75, it feels personal—like the platform knows exactly when you’re entering.

Here’s what’s actually happening with synthetic indices, and why they’re not rigged the way you think.

What Synthetic Indices Actually Are

Synthetic indices are computer-generated markets created by Deriv. Unlike forex or stocks, they don’t represent real assets. Instead, they simulate market volatility using mathematical algorithms.

Key characteristics:

• Trade 24/7 without market closures
• Controlled volatility levels (Vol 10, 25, 50, 75, 100)
• No external news or economic events affect them
• Predetermined mathematical behavior

Therefore, the question isn’t whether they’re “real”—they’re openly synthetic. The question is whether they’re fair.

The “Rigged” Accusation Explained

When traders pose the question, “are synthetic indices rigged???”, they usually mean one of three things:

1. “The broker sees my trades and moves price against me” This would require Deriv to manipulate their algorithm in real-time based on individual positions. Furthermore, it would be illegal in regulated jurisdictions where Deriv operates.

2. “The algorithm is designed to make traders lose” The algorithm creates volatility—both up and down. However, volatility itself isn’t bias. It creates opportunities and risks equally.

3. “My strategy worked, then suddenly stopped working” This happens because synthetic indices have consistent volatility patterns. As a result, when many traders use the same strategy, the edge disappears through market efficiency.

What the Mathematics Show

Deriv publishes the mathematical models behind their synthetic indices. In fact, they use random number generators with specific volatility parameters.

Volatility 75 Index example:

• Generates ticks with 75% annualized volatility
• Uses cryptographically secure random number generation
• Each tick is independent of previous ticks
• Long-term distribution follows normal statistical patterns

Moreover, independent auditors can verify these algorithms. Therefore, systematic bias would be detectable through statistical analysis.

What this means: The indices aren’t rigged toward house advantage. Instead, they’re genuinely random within defined volatility parameters. However, randomness doesn’t mean easy profits—it means unpredictability.

Why It Feels Rigged (But Isn’t)

Human psychology creates patterns where none exist. Consequently, losing streaks feel intentional even when they’re statistically normal.

Cognitive biases at play:

Confirmation bias: You remember losses more vividly than wins. Therefore, five losses feel like proof of rigging, while previous wins are forgotten.

Gambler’s fallacy: After several losses, you believe a win is “due.” However, each tick is independent. The algorithm doesn’t owe you a winning trade.

Pattern recognition: Your brain sees conspiracies in randomness. As a result, random price movements appear deliberately targeted against your positions.

For instance, when you enter long and price immediately drops, it feels personal. Nevertheless, this happens to everyone—it’s called bad timing, not manipulation.

What Actually Causes Consistent Losses

If synthetic indices aren’t rigged, why do so many traders lose? Here are the real reasons:

Overleveraging: Trading with stakes too large for your account. Consequently, normal volatility wipes you out before profitable trades can recover losses.

Martingale strategies: Doubling stakes after losses works until it doesn’t. Meanwhile, one extended losing streak destroys your account.

No edge: Random entry without strategy means 50/50 outcomes. However, spreads and poor risk management turn this into consistent losses.

Emotional trading: Chasing losses, revenge trading, and abandoning plans. As a result, discipline disappears exactly when it matters most.

Poor timing: Entering during consolidation or range-bound periods. Therefore, you get stopped out repeatedly before any significant move occurs.

Additionally, many traders don’t track statistics. They remember dramatic losses but forget the context of their overall win rate and risk-reward ratios.

How to Verify Fairness Yourself

Don’t take anyone’s word—test it yourself. Here’s how:

Record 1,000 ticks: Track direction (up or down) for consecutive ticks. In fact, you should see roughly 50/50 distribution over large samples.

Measure volatility consistency: Compare actual volatility to the stated index level. For example, Volatility 75 should maintain ~75% annualized volatility over extended periods.

Test strategies on demo: Run the same strategy on demo and live accounts. Therefore, if results differ dramatically, something’s wrong. However, if they’re similar, execution is consistent.

Statistical analysis: Export tick data and analyze for bias. Tools like Excel or Python can detect non-random patterns. Nevertheless, you’ll find the distributions match expected statistical norms.

Furthermore, you can compare your results with other traders. If everyone experiences identical “manipulation,” that’s suspicious. However, if results vary based on strategy and risk management, that’s normal market behavior.

What Deriv Actually Makes Money From

Understanding the business model clarifies why rigging isn’t necessary. Deriv profits from:

Spread costs: Every trade has a small spread. Therefore, they earn regardless of whether you win or lose. Volume matters, not your individual losses.

Commission on certain accounts: Some account types charge per-trade commission. As a result, more trading equals more revenue—whether you profit or not.

Long-term customer retention: If indices were rigged and everyone lost, traders would leave. Instead, keeping markets fair ensures continued trading volume.

Moreover, regulatory requirements prevent obvious manipulation. Deriv’s licenses would be revoked if audits revealed systematic bias against traders.

The reality: Deriv makes more money from active, consistently trading customers than from systematically destroying accounts. Therefore, fairness is in their business interest.

Real Traders’ Experiences

I’ve talked to traders who’ve been profitable on synthetic indices for years. Their common traits:

Strict risk management: Never risking more than 1-2% per trade. Consequently, losing streaks don’t destroy their accounts.

Strategy with edge: Using technical analysis, price action, or statistical methods that work over hundreds of trades. However, they accept that no strategy wins every time.

Emotional control: Following their plan regardless of recent results. Therefore, they don’t abandon working strategies during normal drawdowns.

Realistic expectations: Aiming for 55-60% win rates with proper risk-reward ratios. Meanwhile, they understand that consistency over months matters more than daily results.

For more detailed approaches, check out [Internal link: volatility index strategies] and learn from traders who’ve actually made it work.

The Uncomfortable Truth

Synthetic indices aren’t rigged. However, they’re not easy either. In fact, their 24/7 availability and consistent volatility make them harder for impulsive traders.

Why they’re challenging:

• No market closures force discipline breaks
• Consistent volatility enables both profits and losses equally
• Emotional traders have unlimited opportunities to overtrade
• Martingale strategies are tempting but eventually catastrophic

Additionally, the psychological aspect is real. When you can trade any time, you will—even when you shouldn’t. As a result, discipline becomes the primary challenge, not the market itself.

Testing Synthetic Indices Yourself

Don’t trust this article or any other opinion. Instead, verify through your own testing.

Action steps:

Open a Deriv demo account with unlimited virtual funds. Therefore, you risk nothing while gathering data.

Trade your strategy for 200+ trades on demo. Track every result in a spreadsheet. Furthermore, calculate win rate, average win/loss, and maximum drawdown.

Compare demo results to live results on a small account. If they’re similar, the platform is consistent. However, if live results are dramatically worse, examine your own emotional differences—not the platform.

Additionally, join trading communities and compare notes. Nevertheless, focus on traders with verified track records, not those making excuses for losses.

Final Verdict

Are synthetic indices rigged? No. They’re random within defined volatility parameters, operated by a regulated broker with business incentives for fairness.

Are they difficult to trade profitably? Yes. However, the difficulty comes from trader psychology, poor risk management, and lack of edge—not manipulation.

The indices give you exactly what they promise: synthetic volatility at specific levels, 24/7. What you do with that opportunity determines your results.

For more resources on actually trading these markets effectively, visit [Deriv Sign Up Guide 2026: Open Your Trading Account & Start Trading CFDs Today] where we break down practical approaches without the conspiracy theories.

Stop blaming the platform. Start examining your strategy, risk management, and emotional control. That’s where the real answers are.